US oil prices are unlikely to fall meaningfully while the Iran war continues to disrupt global oil infrastructure, with Monday expected to bring another volatile session. Analyst Patrick De Haan forecasts pump prices of $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon Monday, while $4 gasoline remains a realistic possibility depending on how events unfold. Three weeks of conflict have systematically eroded the global supply buffer that previously provided markets with some price stability.
The conflict began on February 28 when US and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran, a move that immediately triggered sustained increases in global oil prices. From below $3 per gallon before the war, the national gasoline average has climbed 23% to $3.70, a rapid escalation with significant consequences for household budgets and business operating costs. Each new attack on oil infrastructure or shipping blockade adds fresh pressure to an already strained market.
The US bombing of Kharg Island on Friday targeted the facility at the center of Iran’s oil export operations, representing one of the most significant infrastructure strikes of the conflict to date. Iran’s continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has blocked roughly 20% of global daily oil supply from reaching international markets. Brent crude ranged from $103 to $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude held near $94 after briefly reaching $100 the previous day.
California motorists face average pump prices above $5 per gallon, with some Los Angeles stations pricing above $8. Diesel costs for the commercial transport and logistics sectors could reach $5.15 per gallon nationally. The White House has received detailed supply risk briefings from Exxon CEO Darren Woods, and from counterparts at Conoco and Chevron, all of whom have warned about the potential for speculative trading to compound the impact of physical supply disruptions.
Wall Street registered modest gains Monday as oil prices briefly retreated, with the S&P 500 rising about 1%. Oil company stocks have reached record highs since the conflict began, benefiting from the same elevated prices that are straining American households. The oil price situation is unlikely to improve significantly until the conflict de-escalates and the Strait of Hormuz reopens to international shipping traffic.
