Saudi Arabia is forecasting a fiscal deficit of 3.6 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) for the year 2027, as outlined in the Finance Ministry’s pre-budget statement. The government anticipates total expenditures to reach 1.39 trillion Saudi riyals, equivalent to $370.21 billion, while projecting revenues at 1.20 trillion riyals. This budget framework is designed to align with the Kingdom’s development priorities and ensure long-term fiscal sustainability.
Looking ahead to 2029, Saudi Arabia expects revenues to increase to 1.351 trillion riyals, with expenditures projected to rise to 1.544 trillion riyals. The Finance Ministry credits economic reforms under Vision 2030 for diversifying the economy, improving the business environment, and boosting the private sector’s role in economic growth. Notably, non-oil revenues have grown significantly, from 166 billion riyals in 2015 to an expected 505 billion riyals in 2025.
The Kingdom’s preliminary estimates indicate a potential contraction in real GDP of 3.6 percent in 2026, largely attributed to an anticipated 21.8 percent decline in oil-sector activity. However, non-oil activity is expected to grow by 3.2 percent, which may help offset the downturn in the oil sector. For 2027, the Finance Ministry projects robust real GDP growth of 12.8 percent, with inflation predicted to remain stable, averaging around 1.9 percent annually from 2027 to 2029.
Saudi Arabia plans to continue its borrowing strategy through domestic and international markets in 2027, utilizing bonds, sukuk, loans, and project and infrastructure financing. The government’s fiscal strategy aims to foster economic growth, maintain financial stability, and retain the flexibility to respond to global economic and geopolitical changes while advancing Vision 2030’s objectives.
